LORD JONATHAN ADAIR TURNER Chairman of the Energy Transition Commission, former Chairman of the UK’s climate change committee It’s a great pleasure to be with you even if only online. Your conference this morning is focused on technology and innovation for an energy transition and my key message is that progress on technology and innovation should make us confident that we can achieve a radical energy transition to a global zero carbon economy by mid-century, even if there are some very major challenges on Route. Challenges which of course, we’re very aware of this year with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with the energy price effects that that has had. But this year and going to have the first slide (Slide 1, page 54) please should also remind us of the crucial importance of a radical and rapid energy transition because we have seen across the world and of course, you have seen it dramatically in Italy, some extreme weather events, which are not just the normal cycle decade by decade of weather, but clear message that we are facing very significant climate change effects. The fact that Italy has had this terrible drought over the summer in the North and Pakistan, incredible floods is linked to a weather phenomenon known as La Nina. That is a cycle which has always occurred. But the severity of the impact, the scale of the droughts, and the scale of the floods, is increasing with each turn of that cycle, and will get worse with every next new 0.1 degrees centigrade of a warning (Slide 2, page 55). At Glasgow cop 26 conference last November, the world committed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade above pre industrial levels, or more precisely, to have a 50% chance of doing that, because we have to remember that all climate models are probabilistic. They don’t give us absolute at certain predictions. But it’s absolutely clear that if we are to have that 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade, we will have to reduce emissions across the world to around net zero by mid-century (Slide 3, page 55). 3. Lo scenario internazionale della transizione energetica 31
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