What this slide shows is a review by the Ipcc the International Panel on Climate Change, which brings together all the climate scientists of the world have multiple different parts, which might be compatible with 1.5 degrees centigrade limit, but pretty much all of those show us getting to net zero emissions around mid-century. And that the Glasgow cop 26 conference last November, there were a set of commitments and agreements that will help to limit further growth in emissions. But if I can have the next slide, we have to face the blunt truth that even with those commitments agreed at Glasgow, we are not on a path to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade. The International Energy Agency and other trusted authorities have tried to work out what would be the impact of what was agreed at Glasgow. On the most optimistic scenario, where you believe that every one of those pledges is delivered in full, including some which were fairly vague, then we might be on a path to 1.8 degrees warming. If you simply take the stronger, clearer pledges and targets, we might be on the path to 2.1 degrees centigrade. If you said, I’m only going to focus on what people have said, they’ll get done by 2030. Because I really can’t rely on those longer targets, then we might be on path to a 2.4 degrees centigrade. And if you focus just on where countries actually have policies in place, carbon prices regulations, which will deliver this change, then the estimates are that we are still on a path to 2.7 degrees centigrade warming, the impacts we’ve seen so far, have occurred at 1.2 degrees warming, and they’ll get worse and worse, we have a hell of a lot still to do. So it’s quite possible in this year of extreme weather, under the energy crisis, to end up a bit pessimistic about our progress on the energy transition. But I think the long term reasons for optimism remain. And at the core of that long term optimism is technology and innovation because we have seen and we are continuing to seen quite remarkable progress on technology, and cost reduction (Slide 4, page 56). 3. Lo scenario internazionale della transizione energetica 33
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy NDY5NjA=