I think we have to live in a world where it is highly likely that Nord Stream one will never deliver any gas again, in future. That is just over, we are going to have to live without Russian gas. And that means, of course, that in the short term, we are pushed into measures that we don’t like, like running more Coal Measures, which we should have been doing already, like keeping those German nuclear plants going, and measures which may have to include rationing of gas over this winter, whether to residential, or to industrial consumers. It is a challenge. But it’s a challenge that we I think we have to accept as the price of defeating this awful aggression in Ukraine. But what is the medium term impact of this crisis? I think the glimmer of good news is that I’m absolutely confident that the medium term impact is actually positive for the energy transition. Over one year, there’s only a limited extent that you can actually build more wind and solar but if you look at what the EU and individual governments are doing to address issues that we should have addressed in the past, like planning and permitting constraints, and the way that they’re increasing the targets, I’m absolutely confident that by 2030, we will have significantly more renewable electricity, and maybe also will have kept more of our nuclear electricity than we were on target for built before. And I’m absolutely confident that by 2030, Europe will be consuming very significantly less gas in total than it was previously on target to (Slide 17, page 62). As well as the world situation and some of the technologies. It’s interesting to look at the next chart which repeats what I showed you earlier. Next slide, please. Which shows that in that that comparison, between the cost of producing hydrogen from a green route of electrolysis, the two curvy lines coming down, and the cost of producing it from a blue route at various different costs of gas. And when we produce this chart, we thought, well, let’s have a really wide range of what the future cost of gas could be, it could be as low as you know, $2 per million Btus, it could be as high as 10, or 15 per million beef to we’re right at the moment, the Dutch Ttf price is a $60 per million Btus. It’s completely off the range of what we considered. Now those prices will come down, they won’t last at that level. But I think what has happened is that people have just been reminded that the essence of fossil fuel markets is that they’re volatile, and that they can suddenly shoot to very high levels. And what I’m seeing across the world, and steel companies in shipping companies in hydrogen developers, there’s an awareness that 3. Lo scenario internazionale della transizione energetica 49
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